中国草食家畜养殖的时空动态及其影响因素

Spatial-temporal dynamics and its influencing factors of herbivorous livestock breeding in China

发展草食家畜养殖是推动中国耗粮型畜牧业向节粮型畜牧业转型、解决人畜争粮矛盾的关键。本文运用探索性空间数据分析技术和计量模型方法,系统考察了中国草食家畜养殖的时序变化过程、地理集聚特征及其影响因素。研究表明:1中国草食家畜养殖量整体增长态势明显,但畜种间养殖量存在较显著的差异。1978-2012年中国草食家畜养殖量增长了92.5%;同期养殖量肉牛>肉羊>奶牛。2县域尺度上,草食家畜养殖量增长区数量多于减少区,而且北方地区养殖量增长明显快于南方地区,初步形成了"北热南冷"的空间格局。3空间杜宾模型显示,人均粮食产量、生产性土地面积比重、城镇人均可支配收入、农业机械化水平、农业劳动生产率与政策因素五项指标,对草食家畜养殖的发展有着正向效应,而人均GDP、城镇化水平和非农收入比重有着显著的负向效应。4中国草食家畜养殖可划分为6大类型区,各类型区应根据"区情、农情"从不同的侧重点加以调控。此外,还应优化调整区域种养结构、实行差别化的区域发展对策及重视养殖集聚区非农产业发展,稳定、促进草食家畜养殖业的发展。

Based on economic geography perspective and county- level statistical data, this paper examined the temporal- spatial processes of herbivorous livestock industry and its environmental pressure using GIS technology and mathematical modeling approach. The results showed that：（1） The whole breeding quantity of herbivorous livestock increased obviously, but there were significant differences between breeds. From 1978 to 2012, the quantity of herbivorous livestock increased by 92.5%, and the order of breading quantity is beef cattle〉 mutton sheep 〉cow.（2） The number of counties with an increasing herbivorous livestock quantity was larger than that with a decreasing quantity. Besides, the breeding quantity in northern China grew significantly faster than that of southern China, presenting a pattern of ＂the north is more active than the south＂.（3） Spatial Dubin- Model（SDM） showed that five indexes including per capita grain yield, productive land area proportion, per capita available income of downtown, agricultural mechanization level, agricultural labor productivity, and policies had positive effects on the development of herbivorous livestock breeding, while per capita GDP, urbanization level and non-agricultural income proportion had significantly negative effects.（4） Based on the self-organizing feature map（SOM）, herbivorous livestock breeding counties in China could be divided into six types, and different measures should be taken for different priorities.