基于交通结构发展情景分析的城市交通碳排放测算研究

Carbon Emission Calculation for Urban Transport Based on Scenario Analysis of Traffic Structure

随着我国城市化和机动化进程的不断加快,在满足居民出行需求的同时,需要更加合理的出行结构来促进交通环境的改善.本文利用不同方法分析测算了城市交通碳排放现状,结合低碳目标的城市客运交通结构优化模型探讨了交通出行比例不变、交通出行比例优化和交通出行比例失衡三种发展情景.分析表明,不同情景下的城市交通碳排量的平均年增长率分别为13.1%、7.3%和15.3%.公共交通是交通结构优化的主要推动力,只有在公共交通分担率不断上升的同时,控制并降低小汽车交通出行比例,才能降低碳排放总量的增长速度.

Along with the accelerating process of urbanization and motorization in China, while meeting the travel demand, the more reasonable traffic travel structure is required to improve the traffic environment.This paper calculates and analyzes the current situation of the urban traffic carbon emissions using various methods, discussing three kinds of development situations including the invariability, optimization and imbalance of traffic structure combined with the traffic structure optimization models aiming at low-carbon emissions. The results show that the average annual growth rates of urban traffic carbon emissions are13.1% 、7.1% and 15.3% in different scenarios. The public transit is the main driving force for the optimization of traffic structure. Only the proportion of public transit rising constantly and the proportion of car trips being controlled, can the growth rate of the carbon emissions be reduced.