1961—2012年华南地区气温的变化特征

Characteristics of Temperature Variation During 1961-2014 over Southern China

根据华南地区110个站1961—2012年逐月平均气温资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了华南地区气温的变化特征。结果表明,1961—2012年华南地区年平均气温以0.14℃/(10 a)的速率显著上升。20世纪70—80年代呈波动变化,90年代中后期气温有明显的上升,并在1997年左右发生突变性增温。从季节分布看,升温速率冬季最大,为0.22℃/(10 a),秋季次之,为0.18℃/(10 a),夏季和春季升温幅度较小,分别为0.11℃/(10 a)和0.09℃/(10 a)。从地域分布看,珠江三角洲地区和华南东部沿海是主要升温区域,升温速率为0.3℃/(10 a),海南平均为0.23℃/(10 a),而广西和广东西部、北部地区增温速率较小,为0.15℃/(10 a)。

Based on the 1961-2012 monthly average temperature data from 110 meteorological stations,the characteristics of average temperature variation over southern China were analyzed by linear trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test method. The results showed that annual mean air temperatures over southern China had increased with a significant trend of 0.14 ℃ per decade during 1961-2012. In the 1970 s and 1980 s,temperatures fluctuated. Since the middle and later 1980 s,temperatures had shown a significant increase trend,and an abrupt change point of temperature happened in 1997. The mean temperatures for the four seasons all showed significant increasing trend,and the most distinguished increase trend occurred in winter（0.22 ℃ per decade）,followed by that in autumn（0.18 ℃ per decade）, summer（0.11 ℃ per decade）and spring（0.09 ℃ per decade）. Different regions presented different warming rates. Major warming regions were the Pearl River Delta and the eastern coastal areas,with a warming rate of more than 0.30 ℃ per decade. The secondary warming area was Hainan province（0.23 ℃ per decade）. Guangxi and northwestern Guangdong had the slowest change rate of less than 0.15 ℃ per decade.