甘肃省能源消费结构研究——基于动态偏离份额模型

Research on Energy Consumption Structure in Gansu Province Based on DSSM Model

甘肃省作为我国西部大开发战略的龙头区域,其经济的快速发展对我国能源消费总量的影响越来越大。优化甘肃省能源结构,促进经济和谐可持续发展是必然趋势。以甘肃省2006—2012年的能源消费实际数据为基础,构建甘肃省能源消费的动态偏离份额模型进行实证研究,并运用Shift-share对各行业的能源消费现状进行归类分析。结果表明:甘肃省各行业的能源消费均有不同程度的增长,且在未来一段时间内将有大幅度增加。最后提出提高能源技术创新水平、推行结构性节能和制定配套的能源规划措施的建议来促进甘肃省能源消费与经济的可持续发展。

For the western development strategy in Chings leading area,Gansu province,the rapid develop-ment of its economic would more and more impact on total energy consumption of our country. Optimizingenergy structure is the inevitable trend in Gansu province to promote harmonious economic sustainable de-velopment. Based on the actual energy consumption data of Gansu Province from 2006 to 2012,a model ofdynamic deviation share of energy consumption in Gansu province is constructed for empirical research,u-sing shift-share to classify and analysis the situation of energy consumption in various industries. Finally,suggestions are put forward on improving the level of energy technology innovation, carrying out structuralenergy planning and formulating matched energy planning measures to promote the sustainable develop-ment of energy consumption and economy in Gansu Province. The conclusions show that the energy con-sumption in the industries of Gansu Province has varying degrees of growth,and there will be a substantialincrease in the next period of time.