中国“空巢村”:陕北农村案例研究

China's “Empty Villages”: A Case Study from the Rural Areas of Northern Shaanxi

过去30年间,中国地区间发展不均衡,收入差距拉大,导致城乡和地区间出现大规模人口迁移,贫困地区出现了许多"空巢村"现象。人口迁移已成为国家文化发展繁荣所面临的重大挑战,为了了解中国人口迁移现象的具体产生缘由及其影响,本文针对陕北两个市的家庭移民及收入情况进行深入研究和分析。所用数据来源于第二次全国农业普查,覆盖8914个村庄,110万个家庭,490万人口。统计分析和多元回归分析结果揭示了人口迁移的模式、起因和影响,结果显示,家庭贫困或经济困难的人们比其他人更有可能搬迁到其他地方。另外,举家搬迁和劳动力迁移是两种不同的人口迁移行为。我们的研究结果填补了一个重大学术空缺,对中国地区发展和城镇化政策的制定具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。

Uneven regional growth and rising income inequality over the last three decades have been responsible for massive rural-urban and inter-regional migration in China,making many 'empty villages'in the poor areas. Migration has become a serious challenge on the country's future growth and prosperity. To understand the exact causes for and consequences of migration in China,this paper analyses household level data from two prefectures in Northern Shaanxi. Extracted from the Second National Agricultural Census,the dataset covers 8914 villages,1. 1 million households,and 4. 9 million people. Statistical analysis and results from a multivariate regression provide information on the patterns,causes and consequences of migration. It is found that poor households or people living in adverse conditions are more likely to migrate than others. In addition,household migration behaviour is different from that of labour migration. Our research results fill an important literature gap and have apparent implications on China's regional development and urbanisation policies.