促进我国环保产业发展的实证研究——对《水污染防治行动计划》的解读

Empirical Study of Promoting the Development of Environmental Protection Industry in China——An Interpretation of Water Pollution Control Action Plan

基于2010年《中国投入产出表》,结合环保产业统计调查,构建环保产业外部化投入产出表,采用投入产出局部闭模型定量研究水污染防治行动计划对环保产业的促进作用,并对拉动效应的时滞特性进行分析。研究发现:行动计划的实施将直接带动水污染防治专业设备制造、环境监测专用仪器设备、环境咨询服务等相关领域发展,对环保产品和环保服务的直接贡献为1.4万亿,间接贡献约5 000亿。拉动效应的时滞特性分析表明,行动计划投资对环保产业的刺激效应在2017年达到高峰,然后逐年递减。

Based on the 2010 Chinese input-output table and the statistic survey of environmental protection industry, an externalized input-output model for environmental protection industry is established. Input-output partial closed model is used to quantify the promotion of the Water Pollution Control Act Plan （the Plan） to the environmental protection industry. The time delay properties of pulling effect are also analyzed. The results show that implementation of the Plan brings along the development of the fields related to water pollution control such as special equipment manufacturing, special instrument for environmental monitoring and environment consultancy service, with direct contribution of 1.4 trillion CNY to the environmental protection products and service and indirect contribution of about 500 billion CNY. Analysis of the time delay properties of pulling effect indicates that stimulatory effect of the investment in the Plan on the environmental protection industry will reach to the peak in 2017 and then decline progressively year by year.