《中导条约》全球化:动因、路径与前景

The Globalization of the INF Treaty:Motivation,Approaches and Prospects

《中导条约》是美苏在冷战时期签署的核军备控制条约。自2007年起,俄罗斯开始要求将条约从美俄双边扩展为全球多边,并得到美国支持。2014年7月,美俄就《中导条约》履约问题产生争议,导致条约未来出现不确定性。在此背景下,美学术界再度提出将《中导条约》全球化,引起国际社会关注。美俄推动《中导条约》全球化既有历史根源又有现实地缘安全因素,既有可能采取维持条约基本框架而直接扩大条约限制范围,也有可能采取所谓双轨策略,以威胁退约或修改条约来促使拥有陆基中程导弹的第三国加入条约。但是,美俄推动《中导条约》全球化将遭遇一系列阻碍,其实现前景十分渺茫。

The INF Treaty is a nuclear arms control treaty of historic significance signed between the U.S.and the Soviet Union in the cold war period.Since 2007,Russia has sought to globalize the treaty and received the support from the U.S.Recently,the globalization of the INF Treaty has again been raised by U.S.scholars in the context of disputes over compliance issue and therefore invites intense international coverage.The U.S.and Russia want to globalize the INF Treaty for both historical and geopolitical and security reasons.To achieve the goal,both countries might seek to globalize the treaty directly or employ the dual track approach seeking to globalize the treaty by using the threat of treaty withdrawal or amendment.However,given the obstacles remaining on the road to treaty globalization,the prospect of the INF Treaty globalization is rather dim.