资本账户开放度影响因素的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors on Capital Account Opening Deg

文章提出包括经济发展水平、国内金融市场深度、金融市场流动性和多样性、对外投资规模、宏观经济稳健性和外汇储备充足程度6个影响资本账户开放度的因素,通过多元线性回归,得到资本账户开放度的影响因素模型。在此基础上提出我国资本市场应该坚持有限和定向的开放。这是因为虽然我国宏观经济金融基本稳定,但利率尚未市场化且汇率政策弹性仍旧不足,所以资本账户还未到全面开放的时间,但是未来几年中国应该抓住上海自贸区带来的难得的机遇,在一定程度上加快资本账户开放的步伐,更快与发达国家接轨。资本账户有限开放是指放松金融服务业的市场准入门槛,以及对资本市场开放设投资方资格要求。定向开放是指我国根据人民币国际化的战略需要与未来战略伙伴国家签订由中国政府主导的双边投资协定,将中国金融市场准入的资格作为我国政府推进人民币国际化的策略工具。

This paper proposes 6 factors on capital account opening degree,including the level of economic development,the depth of domestic financial markets,liquidity and diversity of financial markets,stabilization of macro-economic policy and adequacy of foreign-exchange reserves,which have been derived into 9 independent variables. This paper uses nighteen G20 countries datas except EU as samples to do empirical test. Then they are separated into two groups,the developed countries and developing countries. Fixed effect model with instruments variable is used to do multiple linear regression on panel data. In the end,the paper proposes that China need to open capital account with conditions and to specific partners at first.