本地市场效应与中国出口贸易结构转变——基于模型结构突变的实证检验

Home Market Effects and China Export Structure Shift: An Empirical Analysis Based on Structural Change

文章使用1978～2011年中国和30个主要贸易伙伴的面板数据，考察了用于检验本地市场效应的扩展引力模型是否在1995年前后存在结构突变。结合进一步的分时期检验结果文章发现，1995年之后出口份额上升的技术密集型和资本密集型两大制成品行业，都发生了本地市场效应从无到有、由弱至强的关键转变；而在出口份额下降或者变化不大的劳动密集型制成品和资源型制成品行业，本地市场效应的变动相对于要素禀赋优势的变动则显得无关紧要。本地市场效应在不同时期之间的变动解释了中国出口贸易结构的快速转变。文章还佐证了扩大内需政策的重要性。扩大内需不仅有利于我国国内经济的平衡和可持续增长，而且可以通过本地市场效应扩大出口，促进出口贸易结构的持续升级。

Using a panel data regarding China and its 30 trading partners ranging from 1978 to 2011,we test whether there exists a structural change at 1995 in an extensional gravity model used for identifying Home Market Effects. Combine with the sub period testing results,we find that: in the technology and capital intensive industries which have an increasing export share after 1995,HMEs have significantly strengthened; whereas in the labor and resources intensive industries which have a decreasing or unchanging export share,the changes of HMEs is negligible relative to endowments advantage changes. The time variation of HMEs explains the shift of China export structure. Our results also imply the importance of the boosting domestic demand policy. An increasing domestic demand can be not only beneficial to rebalancing the domestic economy,but also to promoting export and improving export structure through HMEs.