中国货币政策是偏好多目标制还是偏好单一目标制?——基于开放条件下非对称损失偏好函数的实证研究

The Preference of China's Monetary Policy:Multiple Targets or Sole Target? An Empirical Test of Asymmetric Loss Function in An Open Economy

本文采用非对称损失偏好函数探究了开放条件下央行货币政策在产出缺口、通胀缺口和汇率缺口上的损失偏好,实证结果表明央行的货币政策偏好多目标制。央行在产出和通胀上不存在显著的非对称损失偏好,这种相机抉择的货币政策取向表明控制通胀和促增长是央行并重的目标;但在汇率上存在显著的非对称损失偏好,表明央行的汇率政策侧重于支持出口导向型的增长模式。

This paper adopts the asymmetric loss function to evaluate the asymmetric impacts of China＇ s mone- tary policy on output, inflation and exchange rate in an open economy. The results indicate that the asymmetry is evident on exchange rate, but not on output or inflation. So The China＇ s Central Bank pays much attention to both the economic growth and inflation, and the remarkable asymmetric loss in the exchange rate indicates the exchange rate policy stresses on the export growth pattern.