人口老龄化、现收现付制与中等收入陷阱

Aging Population,PAYGO Pension Plan and the Middle Income Trap

本文以人口老龄化为背景,从现收现付制的经济效应角度研究了其对中国跨越中等收入陷阱的影响。研究发现,人口老龄化和现收现付制对于经济的负面作用不只是简单的叠加,人口老龄化程度越高,以现收现付制为主要特征的养老保险制度对于经济的负面影响就越大,并由此增大中国落入"中等收入陷阱"的风险。本文的分析结论从经济增长角度为中国养老保险制度从现收现付制向积累制的转变提供了支撑。

This paper analyzes the impact of PAYGO pension plan on the risk of falling into the middle income trap for China from the perspective of economic effect in the context of aging. The analysis shows the more severe of the aging population issue, the greater the impact of PAYGO pension plan to the economy. In the context of fast speed of aging, PAYGO pension scheme will drag the Chinese economy and enlarge the risk that China would falling into the middle income trap. The conclusion supports the transition from PAYGO to funded pension scheme.