营改增的企业成长效应研究

Research on the Impacts of Replacing Business Tax with VAT on the Firm's Growth Capacity

科学分析和全面评估营改增试点以来的实际效应,对于继续扩大营改增范围,进而实现营改增的全覆盖具有十分重要的意义。笔者利用2011—2014年微观企业层面的调查数据,实证研究营改增三年来的经济效应。在方法上,利用营改增分地区分行业逐步进行试点的特点,对抽样企业试点前后的效应采用双重差分模型进行实证分析;在内容上,着重评估营改增对企业成长能力的影响。研究结果表明,营改增使得企业新增固定资产提高了4.85%,对交通运输业的拉动效果强于现代服务业;营改增提高了企业的盈利能力,使得净资产收益率平均提高3个百分点。研究还发现,营改增拉动企业技术投入比率平均增长0.27个百分点,提高了企业创新能力。总的来说,营改增对企业成长能力的拉动效应非常显著,这种效应的基础是降低企业税负。在下一步的改革中要关注对财政收入的影响,同时处理好税收征管问题。

It is important for extending the trials of replacing business tax with VAT to the construction, real estate, financial, and consumer service industries, to analysis and evaluate the impacts of this reform. In this paper, we research the economical impacts of replacing business tax with VAT in the past three years, using the 2011-2014 firm-level survey data. Taking advantage of the step-by-step scheme of replacing business tax with VAT, we use the Difference-in-Difference model with the idea of natural experiment in the Eeonometrics, present empirical analysis to the firm＇s growth capabilities. The results show replacing business tax with VAT stimulates the firm＇s new business fixed assets to improve 4. 85%, and the scheme has more pulling effect on transport industry than on modem service sectors, improving the company＇s profitability and making the ROE increased by 3 percentage points. The results also show Replacing Business Tax with VAT improves the innovation ability, stimulating firm＇s technology investment rate to increase 0. 27 percentage point. In general, the positive impacts of replacing business tax with VAT on the enterprises growth are very significant, but the basis of these impacts is to reduce the corporate tax burden. So we must evaluate the impacts on the tax revenue, and deal with how to collect the tax revenue in the forthcoming reform.