民间金融风险:形成、传染与演化

The Risk of Informal Finance: Formation,Contagion and Evolution

金融创新与发展使得民间金融风险能够便利地向正规金融市场与实体经济渗透,而投资受限、通胀以及资产泡沫预期下,民间资本的求利动机和脱实体化倾向正使民间金融风险不断累积。笔者在对民间金融风险形成原因进行深入剖析的基础上,认为利率差异、金融要素交叉流动和信息交叉传播是民间金融风险传染至整个经济金融体系的主要渠道;民间金融风险演化的结果不仅是风险在民间金融市场中不断累积,而且向正规金融市场和实体经济渗透,危及正规金融市场安全。因此,应加快利率市场化进程,打破现有不合理的信用担保体系并建立"大监管"体系,从而在民间金融风险传染与演化过程中抑制风险的扩散,将风险的影响降到最低。

The innovation and development of finance make the risks of informal finance can easily infiltrate to the formal financial market and the entity economy. And under the expectation of limited investment, inflation and asset bubble, the profit motive and removing physical tendency of private capital are making the informal financial risks continue to accumulate. Based on the in-depth analysis of the causes of the formation of informal financial risks, this paper suggests that the interest rate difference, cross flow of financial factors and information transmission are the main channels of informal tem; the informal financial risks evolution results not only financial risks spreading risks accumulated in the to the whole economic sysinformal financial market, hut also permeate to the formal financial market and the entity economy, endanger the formal financial market. Therefore, this paper puts forward suggestion that speeding up the marketization of interest rates, breaking the existing unreasonable credit guarantees system and establishing the ＂big supervision＂ system can be used to inhibition the risk diffusion in the process of the transmission and evolution of informal financial risks and then minimum the influence of the risks