中国光伏产业市场势力与并购绩效的实证研究

Empirical Study of Market Power and M&A Performance in China's Photovoltaic Industry

笔者以新产业组织理论的"结构—行为—绩效"分析范式为逻辑主线,实证研究在现有市场结构下,我国光伏产业能否通过纵向并购行为改善企业绩效,研究成果对于帮助光伏企业走出当前困境拥有推广意义。笔者首先利用GMM动态面板数据度量我国光伏产业的市场势力溢价与规模弹性,并据此对该市场的垄断程度以及是否存在倾销行为做出分析,目前尚未见国内学者运用动态面板数据定量分析光伏产业市场结构。在此基础上,为了探讨并购行为对企业绩效的影响,笔者以光伏产业龙头公司天威保变为例,对其并购行为带来的投资收益与EVA进行协整分析,探讨光伏企业的纵向一体化行为对企业价值的影响。基于该方法分析光伏产业并购绩效在国内也属首次,它试图弥补传统比较静态分析法和CAR法存在的一些缺陷。笔者基于上述研究结果认为:我国光伏上下游企业均未获得垄断利润且不存在倾销行为;并购行为对企业绩效有显著影响,但不是任何时期、任何形式的并购行为都会提升企业绩效。

Based on the “Structure-Conduct-Performance” framework of new industrial organization theory, this paper studies empirically that whether the performance of Chinese photovoltaic industry can be improved by M＆A activities under the existing market structure. The results of this paper have significant implications to help the photovoltaic industry get out of trouble. Using GMM dynamic panel data, we estimate the market power and scale elasticity, which is used to analyze the degree of monopoly and whether there are dumping behaviors in photovohaic industry. Few scholars use the dynamic panel data to analyze the market structure of photovohaic industry, which is one of the contributions of this paper. In order to investigate the influence of M＆A on company＇s performance based on the case of Tianwei Baobian, a top leading enterprise, we analyze the co-integration relation between EVA and return of investment. In this way we can observe the effect of vertical integration behavior on the company＇s value. Our paper first uses this approach to measure the M＆A performance, which can avoid the defects of comparative static analysis method and CAR method. Results show that China＇s photovohaic enterprises have not obtained monopoly profits or acted as dumping; M＆A activities have significant influence on the company＇s performance. However, not in any forms or in any periods of M＆A activities can improve the company＇s performance.