混沌理论在储粮害虫预测中的应用研究展望

Prospect of application of chaos theory in stored grain insect forecast

针对我国储粮害虫预测所面临的技术需求,分析了储粮害虫预测预报技术研究现状及其存在的问题,以研究解决储粮害虫前期预测问题为目标,围绕储粮害虫种群数量、生长规律、发生时间序列的混沌特性等进行探讨并做出展望,探索运用混沌理论中的相空间重构、庞卡莱截面、返回映像和自相关函数等方法对害虫发生非平稳时间序列进行分析和预测,将混沌理论运用于粮虫的预测预报领域,寻求储粮害虫预测技术的创新点与突破点,为储粮害虫预测预报技术提供支撑,对完善储粮害虫预测技术和保障粮食安全具有指导意义。

According to the technical demand of stored grain pests forecast in China, research status and open questions about stored grain pests forecast was analyzed. In order to solve the problem, the increasing population of insects, growth rhythm, and chaotic characteristics of time sequence were discussed. The phase space reconstruction, Poincare section, and the return map and auto correlation function of chaos theory are applied tentatively to analysis and predict time series of pests in non - stationary stage. Chaotic theory is applied to the field of prediction for stored grain insects to seek the innovation and break through point of stored grain pest＇ s prediction technique, which provided technology support for stored grain pests prediction system and had guiding significance for the improvement of stored grain pest＇ s forecasting technology and food security.