基于VAR模型的煤炭资源与经济增长的动态关系实证分析——以辽宁省为例

Empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between coal resources and economic growth: taking Liaoning Province as an example

以辽宁省为样本,选取1978-2012年的数据,运用VAR模型对煤炭资源的利用和经济增长的动态关系进行实证分析,以揭示煤炭资源的产量、消费与经济增长的影响关系。研究结果表明:从长期来看,三个变量存在均衡关系,煤炭产量与经济增长呈现单向的Granger因果关系,而煤炭消费与经济增长互为Granger因果关系;从短期来看,经济增长受到煤炭产出和消费的双重影响;此外,煤炭消费对经济增长始终起到促进作用,而煤炭产量对经济增长的贡献却不明显,并且煤炭产量与煤炭消费量存在着难以调和的矛盾。

Taking Liaoning Province as a sample,selecting data from 1978 to 2012,using the VAR model,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between coal resources and economic growth,in order to reveal the relationship among coal production,coal consumption and economic growth. The results of the study show that: in the long run,the three variables exist long-run equilibrium relationship. There is a one-way Granger causality between coal production and economic growth,and between coal consumption and economic growth is mutual Granger causality. In the short term,economic growth is influenced by both the output and consumption of coal. In addition,coal consumption on economic growth always plays a role in promoting,but coal production on that is not obvious. And between coal production and coal consumption there are irreconcilable contradictions.