再论袁世凯与辛亥革命的成与败

On Yuan Shi-kai and Success and Failure of the Revolution of 1911

1911年10月10日,武昌起义爆发。清政府重新启用袁世凯镇压革命党。袁世凯预判中国政治态势,周旋于革命派、清政府、立宪派等各派力量之间,一方面以北洋军的强势压迫革命党人;另一方面以革命党人的杀气威胁清政府,最后迫使清朝皇帝退位,促成了中华民国,实现了政治制度的转型,有利于中国社会的稳定和发展。但是,袁世凯本质上是一个封建官僚,缺乏民主共和思想,他不但没有积极推进民主进程,反而妄图坚持独裁专制,复辟帝制,又成了阻挡历史车轮的势力。结合清末民初的社会现实,对袁世凯的性格心理及其所作所为进行分析,有助于加深对于袁世凯本人以及这段历史的认识。

On October 10,1911 Wuchang Uprising broke out,Yuan Shi -kai accurately estimated the China＇ s political situation and direction,finally forced the emperor of Qing Dynasty abdicated, established the Republic of China. But Yuan Shi - kai was essentially a feudal bureaucrats,tried to resume the monarchy, and became block on history. Combined with the so- cial reality of the late Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China, the article tries to analyze Yuan shi - kai＇ s behavior and psychology,which will contribute to deepen the understanding for Yuan Shi - kai as well as for this phase of history.