世界技术不平衡发展测度及其对经济增长的影响

Study on the Measure of World's Imbalanced Technological Development and Its Influence on World Economic Growth

在使用泰尔指数测度世界技术不平衡发展的基础上,可以尝试运用时间序列模型来分析世界技术不平衡发展对世界经济增长的影响。世界技术不平衡发展的程度呈现上升的态势,在按经济发展程度两区域划分标准下,区域间技术不平衡对世界技术不平衡发展的作用更大,而区域内技术不平衡对世界技术不平衡发展的作用较小,世界技术不平衡发展有助于全球、发达地区和不发达地区的经济增长,世界技术不平衡发展的程度每提高1%,将分别导致全球经济增长0.189%,发达地区经济增长0.351%,不发达地区经济增长0.258%。为了增大世界技术不平衡发展对经济增长的促进作用,发达地区和不发达地区均应逐步放松高级人才和资金流动限制,这样才有利于获得创新资源的集聚效应,降低创新风险,实现技术创新并促进经济增长。

Based on Theil index to measure world uneven technological development, this paper deals with the application of time series model to the world uneven technological development of economic growth. The study found that world uneven technological development was slowly rising. According to the economic development in two regional standards, the role of uneven technology between regions was bigger, and the uneven technology between countries within regions was small and unimportant. According to geographical location in seven regional standards, the role of uneven technology between seven regions was larger, and the uneven between countries within the region was also important. World technology uneven development helped to boost economic growth for the whole area, developed regions and underdeveloped regions. 1% increase in World technology uneven development would lead to global economic growth of 0.189%, developed regions growing by 0.351% and underdeveloped areas being 0.258%. In order to increase the impacts of world uneven technological development on economic growth, each region should gradually relax senior talent and capital flow restrictions, to get the agglomeration effects of innovation resources. Agglomeration effects help to reduce the risk of innovation, realizing the technological innovation and promoting economic growth.