吉林省中部城市群城市流强度的时空演变及影响因素分析

Spatial-temporal evolution of the intensity of the urban flow of the urban agglomeration in central Jilin province and its influencing factors

本研究以吉林省中部城市群为研究区域，运用城市流理论模型与GIS的空间分析方法，对2003~2010年研究区的城市流强度与结构进行了测算，定量分析了城市流强度的时空变化特征，并采用多元回归模型对影响城市流强度的相关因素进行探讨。结果表明：（1）2003~2010年吉林省中部城市群各城市的城市流强度呈现不同程度的增加，但整体的集聚和辐射能力较弱，空间联系较为松散，长春市的核心带动作用需进一步提高；（2）城市流强度整体上形成了一种以长春市为中心的圈层式结构，且区域内空间差异显著，呈现北高南低的格局；（3）城市流强度结构特征表现为城市总体实力与城市流倾向度的关系尚不协调；（4）第二产业对城市流强度的影响大于第三产业，吉林省中部城市群仍处于以工业增长为主导的发展阶段，第三产业发展相对比较落后。最后，提出了吉林省中部城市群各城市之间增强区域经济联系与提高城市流强度的相关对策。

This research, a case study of the urban agglomeration of central Jilin province, uses the theory of urban flow and GIS spatial analysis to measure the intensity and structure of the urban flow in central Jilin province from 2003 to 2010, and gives a quantitative analysis of the spatial-temporal features. It also adopts the multiple regression model to analyze the influencing factors. The results are as follows-（1）： the intensity of the urban flow of central Jilin province was on the increase from 2003 to 2010 to various degrees, but, its overall agglomeration and integrative power were not strong, or in a loose spatial association while, the core role of Changchun City needed improvement （2） the circle-type spatial pattern of the intensity of the urban flow that reduces gradually from .Changchun to the outside emerged, the spatial inequality of the intensity of the urban flow was obvious and the north cities have a stronger urban flow than the south ones~ （3） the structural features of the intensity of the urban flow found expression in the unbalanced relationships between the overall economic strength and the degree of intensity of the urban flow~ （4） the secondary industry exerted more im- pacts on the intensity of the urban flow than the tertiary industry, because the economic development in this area still depended on its industrial growth, which hindered the development of the tertiary in- dustry. Finally, it proposes some measures for promoting the regional urban cooperation and impro- ving the intensity of urban flow.