基于Probit回归模型的经济发达地区土地利用变化驱动力分析——以南京市为例

Driving force analysis of land use change in the developed area based on Probit regression model: A case study of Nanjing City,China

基于1996、2002及2010年的遥感影像,借助RS和GIS技术,分析南京市1996—2010年土地利用变化特征,并采用Probit回归模型定量分析土地利用变化驱动因素.结果表明:1996—2010年,南京市土地利用变化特征主要表现为耕地和林地面积不断减少,建设用地、园地和草地面积持续增加,综合土地利用变化率呈不断上升趋势,整体处于发展状态;通过对耕地和林地变化的回归分析发现,耕地变化在1996—2002年主要受距最近农村居民点距离和农业人口密度变化的影响,在2002—2010年主要受地均GDP变化、距最近农村居民点距离和距最近道路距离的影响;而林地变化在1996—2002年主要受高程和距最近农村居民点距离的影响,在2002—2010年主要受地均GDP变化、人口密度变化和距最近道路距离的影响.影响研究区土地利用变化的因素早期主要是自然和空间距离因素,而近年主要是社会经济和人口因素.

Based on the remote sensing image in 1996, 2002 and 2010, with the help of RS and GIS technology, and using the Probit regression model, this paper analyzed the characteristics of land use change in Nanjing City from 1996 to 2010, and the driving factors of land use change. The results showed that the cultivated land and woodland decreased, constructive land, garden plot and grassland continued to increase, and the comprehensive land use change rate was rising since 1996. The results of regression model for cultivated land and woodland change indicated that the change of cultivated land in the years 1996-2002 was mainly affected by the factors of ＂distance to the nearest rural settlement＂ and ＂farmers＇ population density＂. However, in the years 2002-2010 it was mainly affected by the factors of ＂change of per area GDP＂, ＂distance to the rural settlement＂ and ＂distance to the nearest road＂. The change of woodland in the years 1996-2002 was mainly affected by the factors of ＂the elevation＂ and ＂distance to the rural settlement＂ However, in the years 2002-2010 it was mainly affected by the factors of ＂change of per area GDP＂, ＂population densi- ty＂ and ＂distance to the nearest road＂. By comparison, the early driving factors of land use change were mainly natural factors, but in recent years, they were mainly social, economic and demogra- phic factors.