中国大豆进口依赖性及其对大豆进口安全的影响

Soybean Import Dependence and Its Effect on Soybean Import Security in China

为判断大豆进口来源的可靠性,增强进口安全性,通过综合考察我国从某国进口大豆量占我国进口大豆总量的比重、某国对我国出口大豆金额占该国出口大豆总金额的比重、某出口国的大豆产量占世界大豆产量的比重等指标,测算了我国大豆进口对主要来源国的依赖系数,并进一步评价了进口安全性。结果表明:我国大豆进口主要依赖美国和巴西,但对美国的依赖迅速减弱,系数从2000年的0.893 1降至2013年的0.180 8,而对巴西的依赖缓慢增强,系数从2000年的0.159 0上升至2013年的0.197 2。总的来看,大豆进口仍处于相对安全的状态。

To judge the reliability of the sources and enhance the import safety,the relationship between China and the main sources of China＇s soybean import markets was studied. The study focused on the following aspects： Identifying the proportion of the value share of China＇s soybean imported from each source country to the total import value from the world,the proportion of the value share of soybean exported from a source country to China to the total export value to the world,the proportion of the value share of soybean output from a source country to the total output value from the world. The dependency coefficients of China＇s import and import safety were also estimated. The results indicated that China＇s import of soybean mainly depended on USA and Brazil,however,the dependence on USA weakened rapidly,the coefficients fell from 0. 893 1 in 2000 to0. 180 8 in 2013,and dependence on Brazil increased slowly,the coefficient raised from 0. 159 0 in 2000 to 0. 197 2 in 2013.On the whole,the dependence of China＇s soybean imports on USA and Brazil is stronger,but still in relatively safe.