区域尺度油松毛虫灾害发生相关气象因子筛选

Climatic Factors Screening for Large-scale Outbreaks of Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu

以我国北方4省10年(2002—2011)77个灾害点的虫情数据和由油松毛虫(Dendrolimus tabulaeformis)具体生活史衍生的73个气象因子为基础,运用典型相关分析法和主成分分析法,筛选出了与油松毛虫不同发生程度相关的主要气象因子。结果表明:与重度发生呈正相关的是Ⅱ期平均最高温度(r=0.93)、9月份最高温度(r=0.81),而与重度发生呈负相关的是年平均湿度(r=-0.69);与中度发生相关的主要是Ⅰ期平均温度(r=0.49)、Ⅱ期平均温度(r=0.61);与轻度发生相关的主要是年平均温度(r=0.75)、Ⅲ期平均相对湿度(r=0.62)。此结果结合其他的环境因子,在以温度和降水变化为主要特征的气候变化背景下,可对林业有害生物灾害暴发进行评价和预报。

We studied the main climate factors on the pest outbreaks from the actual pest monitoring survey records data on county level in 2002-2011, with the main host distribution area of 77 sites in four provinces of China. There were totally 73 climate factors derived from 6 ordinary observed datasets by related meteorological stations by part accumulation, averaging or relative extremum from four development stages of the pest. We used canonical correlation analysis and principal component analysis to screen the factors with the different levels of the outbreaks. The average highest temperature of Ⅱ （ r = 0.93） and the highest temperature in September （r = 0.81 ） had strong positive correlations with the heavy outbreak, while the average temperature of the year （r=-0.69） was the main negative factors with heavy outbreaks. The average temperature of Ⅰ （r= 0.49） and the average temperature of Ⅱ （r = 0.61 ） had positive correlations with middle occurrence of the pest. The average temperature of the year （r = 0.75 ） and the average relative humidity of Ⅲ （r = 0.62） had the main correlations with the light occurrence of the pest.