海港复式航道通过能力动态系统仿真

Dynamic system simulation on throughput capacity of compound channel of sea port

基于SIMIO仿真平台,建立天津港航道系统仿真模型.采用Google Sketchup软件创建港口3D模型图像,与SIMIO仿真结果结合,使模型具有直观三维视觉效果.运用天津港2004年统计资料验证了仿真模型的可靠性.对天津港2011年全年全港船舶到港资料分析、拟合发现,2011年天津港船舶到港规律符合泊松分布.以天津港2011年基础设施情况和营运状况为模型约束条件,通过三组仿真试验,对比了复式航道实施前后天津港营运状况,分析了两种情况下的变化及其原因;给出不计泊位数影响前提下,双向航道及复式航道的极限通过能力;探讨了港口服务水平、泊位等待时间、锚地等待时间及航道等待时间等因素随船流密度变化的趋向.

Based on SIMIO, the simulation model of channel system of Tianjin Port was established. The simulation model has intuitionistic three-dimensional visual effect combination with the 3D harbor image created by Google Sketchup, and the simulation results of SIMIO. The reliability of the simula- tion model is verified by statistics of Tianjin Port in 2004. The interval of ship arrival is in accordance with Poisson distribu- tion based on ship arrival statistics of the whole Tianjin Port in 2011. Three simulation tests are performed by taking the infra- structure condition and the management policy of Tianjin Portin 2011 as basic constrain boundary. The operation status be- fore and after the implement of the compound channel project is compared. The changes between the two operation situation- sand the inherent mechanism are analyzed. The channel throughput capacity is predicted for the two-way mode, and the compound channel mode without consideration of the berth limitation. The standard of service quality of the port, waiting time for berthing, for anchorage parking and for channel ac- cess with the ship traffic density is investigated.