楔子战略与联盟预阻

Wedge Strategy and Prealignment

楔子战略在古今中外被频繁使用,但对其在理论和战略层面的研究尚显不足。楔子战略是联盟、国家行为体或次国家行为体为阻止潜在的敌对联盟形成或分化、破坏、瓦解已经形成的敌对联盟,综合运用政治、经济、军事等资源,采取对抗或调适等战略手段的艺术与科学。楔子战略具有长期性、间接性、慎武性、预防性、灵活性等特点。楔子战略主要以一种"反联盟战略"的姿态出现,其功能主要通过影响联盟关系特别是核心机制利益关系而实现。对楔子战略的评估需要考虑战略环境、战略目标、联盟关系三个层次的因素。将反事实推理与过程追踪相结合是目前检验楔子战略效果最为适宜的方法。联盟重组、联盟分化、联盟解除和联盟预阻是楔子战略的四大目标。作者通过对二战前夕德国和冷战初期美国的以联盟预阻为目标的楔子战略进行分析,揭示了楔子战略的重要作用和成败条件。展望未来,权力斗争不会很快从国际关系中消失,"集势以胜众"将成为各国获取竞争优势的重要法宝,研究楔子战略对于理解国际影响力、地区领导权、地区一体化竞争等问题具有重要借鉴意义。

Wedge strategy has been used for ages,but the study on it with a theoretical and strategic perspective is still inadequate.Wedge strategy is defined as both an art and a science that aims at the realization of alliances',state actors' or sub-state actors' strategic objectives of deterring the formation of potential hostile alliances or differentiating certain existing hostile alliances through a comprehensive utilization of political,economic,and military resources and strategic means like accommodation and confrontation.Wedge strategy is long-term,indirect,prudent about the use of force,preventive,flexible,etc..Wedge strategy mainly appeared as an 'anti-alliance strategy',and it functions mainly through influencing the alliance relations,especially its core mechanism of alliance interest,which needs to consider the strategic environment,strategic goals,and alliance relations.The combination of counterfactual reasoning and process tracking is the most appropriate method to test die effect of a wedge strategy.The four aims of wedge strategy are realignment,dealignment,prealignment and disalignment.The case study in this paper is based on prealignment,in order to examine the effect of the wedge strategy.As we look at the future,as long as the power struggle in international relations remains,wedge strategy is unlikely to disappear.The research and application of wedge strategy should thus turn to areas like competitions for international influence,regional leadership and regional integration.