间接性结构冲突——第三方引发的中美危机及其管控

Indirect Structural Conflicts:Third Party,the Sino-American Crisis and Its Management

除了全球权力结构冲突之外,中关之间还因为第三方的介入,产生了一种间接性结构冲突:一方对第三方负有某种安全义务,而另一方却与第三方存在安全利益冲突,在第三方议题上本来没有直接矛盾的中关双方因此可能发生冲突。相较直接冲突而言,这种冲突结构面临的变数更多,更难管控。它不但增加了中美间发生偶发性冲突的概率,更重要的是使得中关结构性紧张关系更加僵硬与持久化,并可能被第三方拖入一场重大冲突之中。要有效管控这种间接性结构冲突,就必须根据其发生的路径,分别从两方面着手:一是结构层面的管控,即中美通过"隔离"战略避免结构性的权利义务冲突;二是通过制度化、法律化的方式加强对第三方变量的管控,使其对中美关系的干扰最小化。在管控冲突的过程中,关键是中美均应意识到这种冲突的危害性,抑制自己利用第三方牵制对方的危险企图,而第三方也应该在中美间奉行更加平衡、中立而非选边站的政策。在东亚,引发中美间接性结构冲突的第三方因素众多,而菲律宾是一个典型的案例。

Due to the intervention of third parties,the Sino-U.S.relations are facing the challenges of indirect structural conflicts resulting from a trilateral security structure in which when the third parties enjoy the security protection from one great power,they have some conflicts of security interests with the other great power.Compared with the direct bilateral conflicts,there are more variables involved in these conflicts so that it is more difficult to manage them.Under the pressure of this conflict structure,the accidental conflicts are more likely to happen between China and the U.S.and the bilateral structural tension would be more rigid and persisted.The worst possibility is that both powers would be dragged into a fatal regional conflict.Given the origin and process of the indirect structural conflicts,the conflict control should be based on the following rules.The first rule is to free China and the U.S.from the conflict structure by the strategy of insulation.The second one is to strength the management of third parties by mechanisms and treaties so as to decrease their negative intervention to the Sino-American relations.There are two keys in the process of conflict management.One is that China and the U.S.should fully recognize the tremendous danger and damage of indirect structural conflict and stop making use of third parties to balance the opposite side.The other key is that third parties should carry out a more balanced and nonaligned policy rather than the policy of leaning to either side.In East Asia,there are a number of third parties which are likely to trigger the Sino-American indirect structural conflicts,and the Philippines is a typical case.