非寿险业保险周期与承保周期的波动性及结构性差异分析

Structure Difference and Correlation Between Insurance Cycle and Underwriting Cycle in China

基于1999-2013年季度数据,利用CF滤波法、"三元组"检验法和多元回归比较保险周期与承保周期的关系与差异。结果表明:两者的周期长度、对称性等结构性特征均有差异,保险周期存在明显的深度型非对称性,而承保周期较规整。二者的运行波动具有明显的联动性,保险周期与滞后一期的承保周期相逆,且均受到不同外部因素的影响。在剔除外部因素的影响后,保险周期的振幅缩小,承保周期却明显左移,两者都更加对称、更加同步。

Based on the season data from 1999 to 2013 of nonlife insurance in China, this paper uses CF fiter and triples tests to study the structure character and the correlation between the insurance cycle and the underwriting cycle. The results show that they have different length. The insurance cycle is nonsymmetry of deepness, while the underwriting cycle is almost symmetry. Their correlations are obvious. The insurance cycle is opposite to the underwriting cycle in n-1. Of course, they are affected by some external factors, such as GDP and interest rate. After adjusting for external factors, the swing of insurance cycle decreases, while the underwriting cycle moves to the left. But both of them are more symmetric and move more synchro- nously. The insurance cycle is opposite to the underwriting cycle in n ＋ 8. As premium can be got very easily, we can forecast the movement of the underwriting cycle by the judge of insurance cycle.