江西省县域农业化肥施用差异及其驱动机制

Spatial variations of agricultural chemical fertilization and their driving mechanism at county level in Jiangxi Province

本文运用ESDA空间相关分析理论,结合GIS技术和GWR模型,探讨了2000-2010年江西省农业化肥施用的地域格局变化规律及其驱动机制。结果表明:研究期内化肥施用负荷量各年均值表现为先升后降,2000年各县(市)的单位耕地化肥施用负荷量集中于225-675 kg/hm2,2005与2010年则在411-675 kg/hm2和>675 kg/hm2两级较为集中,高负荷量值呈增加趋势,高负荷量地区由南至北范围扩大;县域化肥施用具有明显的正相关性,空间聚集分布显著;3个年份中,热点区范围由北到南移动、先收缩后扩大,冷点区则表现为由西向东迁移、发展变化;各类驱动因素对不同时间、地区化肥施用的影响程度和方向存在较大差异,总体而言,收入和劳动力起推动作用,人口、种植结构和农业技术对化肥施用多为抑制作用。

This article used the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis （ESDA） and Geographical Weighted Regression （GWR） to analyze regional pattern changes and their driving mechanisms of fertilizer applications in Jiangxi Province at county level from 2000 to 2010. In general, the per unit area of chemical fertilizer application had increased from 2000 to 2005. The number had been at the peak level for three years before its decrease in 2009. In 2000 the numbers were mainly around 225-411 kg/hm2 and 411-675 kg/hm2. In 2005 and 2010, the numbers were mainly 411-675 kg/hm2 and 〉675 kg/hm2. Fertilizer application at county level had a positive spatial autocorrelation. In these three years, the changes of cold and hot spots of per unit area of fertilizer application showed obvious spatial evolution. The hot pots moved from the north to the south. In contrast, the cold pots moved from the west to the east. Although all factors were considered related to chemical fertilizer application, the direction and degree of the influences varied considerably in different date and areas. In general, income and labor force were positive on chemical fertilizer application; population, planting structure and agricultural technology affected chemical fertilizer application mostly negatively.