高温逼熟对江西省双季早稻产量的影响

Study on the yield of early rice by heat-forced maturing in Jiangxi Province

基于1994—2013年江西省14个农业气象观测站早稻生育期和产量结构数据、气象数据和2005—2013年的逐时气温数据,分析了近20年高温逼熟灾害发生的趋势和高温逼熟灾害发生时气温的日变化特征,以早稻成熟期30、32、34、35、36和37℃以上有效积热及累计时长作为高温因子,与千粒重和单产进行相关分析,与减产率进行回归分析。结果表明：1）1994—1999年,研究区域未发生高温逼熟灾害。2000年及以后,除2004年,高温逼熟每年都有发生,且呈现增多增强趋势;2）赣中区域受高温逼熟灾害影响最严重,其次是赣北,赣南影响最小;3）当日最高气温超过35、36或37℃时,每天有3-4h超过这一界限气温;4）积热与产量及产量因子的相关性比高温时长更大;5）2005年以后,江西省农业气象观测站受高温逼熟灾害影响导致双季早稻单产损失3.9%-18.9%。

Using rice growth period and yield data（1994—2013）,daily air temperature data（1994—2013）,and hourly air temperature data（2005—2013）from 14 agricultural meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi Province,the tendency about heat-forced maturity disasters during 20 years was analyzed.The daily variation characteristics of air temperature were studied when the disaster occurred.The definition of an effective accumulated temperature of agricultural meteorology was introduced,with the statistics of the high temperature factors which contain the effective accumulated temperature above 30,32,34,35,36 and 37 ℃ and the duration of high temperature during the mature period of early rice in Jiangxi Province.Correlation analysis was taken between the high temperature factors and the1 000 grain weight and yield,and regression analysis was taken between the high temperature factors and the reduction rate of yield.The results showed from the following aspects：1）During 1994—1999,the heat-forced maturing of disasters hardly occured in these area.The heat-forced maturity occurred every year after 2000 except in 2004,and the disasters had an increase trend.2）All areas are affected by heat-forced maturing disasters in Jiangxi,the most severely affected area is in the Center,the next is in the North,and the last is in the south.3）When the daily maximum temperature is over 35,36 or 37℃,the high temperature always lasts 3-4hours.4）Accumulated temperature effects on the yield/yield factors are more significant than the length effects.5）After 2005,the rice average yield by the effect of heat-forced maturity disasters is reduced by 3.9%-18.9%.