古尔班通古特沙漠周边地区气温时空变化

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Temperature in Gurbantunggut Desert Surrounding Area

利用古尔班通古特沙漠周边地区7个国家气象地面基准站1960-2013年气温数据资料,通过累计距平法、线性趋势分析、M-K突变分析等方法分析其气温变化。结果表明,近54年来古漠周边地区气温呈现明显的增温趋势,增温幅度为0.36℃/10a;四季气温均呈现逐渐升高趋势,2000-2013年气温比多年均值分别高1.02、0.58、1.00、0.27℃;气温升温趋势存在较大的空间差异,北缘、西缘、南缘的年平均增温率分别为0.54、0.30、0.28℃/10a,即北缘升温最快、南缘较慢;古尔班通古特沙漠周边地区年平均气温变化在1988年发生突变,春季突变发生在2001和2004年,夏季发生在1990和1991年,秋季发生在1990和1994年,而冬季突变发生较早,为1982和1985年。

Using the cumulative departure method,linear trend analysis methods,M-K mutation analysis methods and the temperature data in1960- 2013 of seven countries meteorological ground base station around the Gurbantunggut Desert region to analyze the temperature changes.The result show that in recent 54 years,the temperature of Gurbantungut Desert surrounding area is obviously increasing trend,increasing amplitude is 0. 36 ℃ per ten years. Temperature in four seasons all showed a trend of rising,the temperature of four seasons in 2000- 2013 is higher than the average,respectively 1. 02 ℃,0. 58 ℃,1. 00℃,0. 27 ℃. Temperature rising trend exists a Larger space differences,the average annual rate of warming in north,west,south were 0. 54,0. 30,0. 28 ℃ per ten years,north is the highest,the lowest in south. In 1988,temperature year change in Gurbantungut Desert surrounding areas is mutation,spring mutation occurred in the year of 2001 and 2004 the summer mutation is in 1990 or 1991,the autumn mutation in 1990 and 1994,and winter mutation occurred earlier,in 1982 and 1985.