摘要
利用1980—2012年全国省级面板数据,通过构建"气候-经济"新模型,定量分析了气候变化对中国农业总产值的影响。研究表明:温度升高和降水量增加均会对中国农业总产值产生积极影响。温度每上升1℃,农业总产值增加1.25亿元;降水量每增加100 mm,农业总产值增加2.08亿元。从气候因子对农业总产值的贡献率来看,温度对农业总产值增长的绝对贡献率为0.424%,而降水量对农业总产值增长的绝对贡献率则达到了0.721%。
By using the provincial panel data from 1980 to 2012 in China, through the construction of ＂new model climate economy＂ , this paper quantitatively analyzed the effects of climate change on gross output value of agriculture in China. Results showed that the rise in both temperature and precipitation had positive impacts on gross output value of agriculture in China. If temperature increased by 1℃, gross output value of agriculture increased 125 million Yuan, If precipitation increased by 100 ram, gross output value of agriculture increased by 208 million Yuan. From the point of contribution rate of climatic factors to gross output value of agriculture, the absolute contribution rate of temperature on growth of gross output value of agriculture was 0.424%, while the absolute contribution rate of precipitation reached 0.721%.
出处
《广东农业科学》
CAS
2015年第13期187-192,共6页
Guangdong Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金(13&ZD160)
国家自然科学基金(41361007)
关键词
农业总产值
气候变化
生产函数
面板数据模型
gross output value of agriculture
climate change
production function
panel data model
