基于GFPM的中国林产品碳储效能及碳库结构动态预测

Dynamic projection of storage efficiency and carbon pool structure of China's harvested wood products based on GFPM

林产品的天然碳储功能及替代减排效应对缓解气候变化具有重要现实意义。本研究以木质林产品(Harvested Wood Products,HWP)碳库为例,依据HWP的自然及经济属性设置3个维度5个指标评述其碳储效能,基于GFPM模型和储量变化法的整合系统,对2010-2030年中国HWP碳库变动和结构演化进行了模拟与核算。结果显示:1HWP碳储效能存在产品之间的差异,硬木类产品具备较好的碳储效能,其中锯材的碳储效能最优,纸类的碳储效能最差;2硬木类产品,尤其是锯材、胶合板和纤维板,是中国HWP碳库的主流,其碳储贡献能力将进一步强化,表明硬木类产品决定着中国HWP碳库的长期发展水平;3中国HWP碳库在2010-2030年间将保持增长,尽管面临年碳储量的下滑,但整体碳储效能和碳库结构将得到优化,HWP碳库整体碳储效能将会有明显上升,碳储效能较好的锯材和人造板的比重将进一步提升,碳储效能较差的纸和纸板比重将缓慢下降。

The natural carbon storage function and alternative emission effects of forest products are of practical significance to climate change mitigation. Taking harvested wood products（HWP）as an object,and based on their natural and economic attributes,this study sets three dimensions and five indexes to assess the carbon storage efficiency of HWP,and based on the integrated analytical system of the Global Forest Products Model（GFPM）and the stock-change approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,this tudy simulates,accounts and analyzes storage changes and structural evolution of China＇s HWP carbon pool from 2010 to 2030. We found differences in carbon storage efficiency among all kinds of forest products. Solid wood products have a relatively good carbon storage efficiency,among which sawnwood has the best carbon storage efficiency in particular,while paper products have the worst carbon storage efficiency.Solid wood products,especially sawnwood,plywood,and fiberboard,are the main contributors to increasing the level of storage of China＇s HWP carbon pool,and their contribution will be more considerable and likely to determine the long-term development of China＇s HWP carbon pool.China＇s HWP carbon pool will keep increasing between 2010 and 2030,meanwhile its overall carbon stock efficiency,product structure and structure of carbon stock efficiency will improve,even though the annual increment decreases as a whole. The overall carbon stock efficiency of China＇s HWP carbon pool will be significantly promoted. In particular,the proportion of sawnwood and wood-based panels,which have a relatively better carbon stock efficiency,are predicted to slightly increase,while the proportion of paper and paperboard,which are of relatively worse carbon stock efficiency,will decrease.