基础设施投资促进了经济增长吗——来自东来自东、中、西部的经验证据

Has the investment on infrastructures promoted economic growth?——Empirical evidence from the east, middle and west areas

基础设施建设投资主要通过两种渠道影响经济增长:一是改善现有基础设施,优化经济增长物质基础;二是作为一种生产要素投入直接作用于经济增长。不合理的地区投资规模与结构,将会导致投资(生产要素)的配置效率下降,进而抑制经济增长。本文以中国2003—2012年间的面板数据估计了基础设施建设投资与东、中部地区及西部地区经济增长之间的关系,结果显示:(1)基础设施建设投资与东、中部地区经济增长之间存在着显著的倒U型关系;(2)基础设施建设投资与西部地区经济增长之间不存在倒U型关系,高强度的基础设施建设投资对经济增长产生了抑制作用。因此,适时适度调整基础设施建设投资的地区规模与结构,将有助于减少基础设施产能过剩与投资要素错配导致的效率损失,更好地实现稳增长目标。

The investment on infrastructures influences economic growth through two ways： one is to improve the present infrastructures and optimize the physical foundations of economic growth; the other is to make the investment a productive factors directly promoting economic growth. Irrational regional investment scale and structure will lower the allocation efficiency of investment （productive factors） and further refrain economic growth. According to the panel data from 2003 to 2012, this article estimates the relationship between investment in infrastructures and economic growth at the east, middle and west areas. The resuits show that： （1） There is an obvious inverse U relationship between investment in infrastructures and economic growth at the east and middle areas; （2） There is no such relationship between investment in infrastructures and economic growth at the west areas, and heavy investment in infrastructures refrains economic growth. As a result, proper adjustment in the scale and structure of investment in infrastructures among regions will reduce the efficiency loss from surplus capacity of infrastructures and false allocation of investment factors so as to better achieve the goal of steady growth.