南京市1949-2012年麻风病流行特征及时间趋势分析

Epidemiological Characteristics and Time Trend Analysis of the Leprosy in Nanjing During 1949- 2012

目的通过研究南京市麻风病流行特征及时间趋势,提出有针对性的控制措施,为我市麻风病防治工作提供依据。方法采用年估计变化百分比(EAPC)、相关分析、卡方检验等统计学方法对南京市1949-2012年防治相关资料进行分析。结果 1949-2012年底全市累计发现2981名麻风病患者,男女性别比为3.66∶1。1949-2012年全市麻风病发现率整体呈现先快速上升再下降至平稳保持在低水平的趋势,麻风病发现率EAPC=-8.59%(P<0.01)。1949-2012年全市麻风病发病率由高至低并平稳保持在较低的发病水平,麻风病发病率EAPC=-9.84%(P<0.01)。患者平均发病年龄为(29.3±12.1)岁。2981名患者从发病至确诊的延迟期(年)中位数为1.8年,早期发现率为52.03%。患者确诊时有898名出现2级畸残(30.12%)。在患者发现方式中,以皮肤科就诊为主,占85.07%。结论建国后全市麻风病防治工作取得显著成效,现已处于低流行状态。全市早期发现麻风病的能力仍需进一步加强。

Objective Studying the epidemiological characteristics and time trend analysis of the leprosy to provide the scientific evidences for specific strategies on leprosy control. Methods Use estimating average percent change, correlative analysis and chi-square test to study on the leprosy data during 1949 - 2012. Results A total number of 2981 new cases were detected during 1949 -2012, the gender rate was 3.66： 1. Firstly, the total detection rate was increasing significantly. Then, it decreased to a stable lower level. And the EAPC of the detection rate was minus 8. 59%. The incidence rate also has a fast growth, then reduced to a low-level. And the EAPC of the incidence rate was minus 9. 84%. The average detection age was 29. 3 ± 12. 1. Duing to the average mean delay period（ 1.8 years） ,the early discovery rate was only 52. 03%. And the disability grade 2 was 30. 12%. The dermatologic clinic was the main detection mode,account for 85.07%. Conclusion The overall leprosy situation is still at low level in Nanjing,but it still had to strengthen the training of professional talents to improve early detection.