农村金融减贫的直接效应与中介效应——基于状态空间模型和中介效应检验的动态分析

The Direct Effect and Mediation Effect of Poverty Reduction on Rural Finance Development in China——A Dynamic Analysis based on the State Space Model and Mediation Effect Evaluation

基于中国农村1986-2010年的时间序列数据,采用状态空间模型和中介效应分析方法检验并测算了农村金融发展对农村贫困的影响效应及其成分。研究结果表明：农村金融发展有效促进了农村贫困缓减,并且在促进农村贫困缓减的过程中中介效应与直接效应并存。

Based on the state space model and mediation effect evaluation,this paper tests the effects of rural finance upon rural poverty with the data of 1986-2010in China.The results show that：rural financial development has effectively promoted rural poverty reduction,and this effect includes the direct as well as mediation effects.