经济改革对技术创新能力的影响——基于中国1987～2013年数据的协整分析

The Influence of Economic Reform on Technological Innovation Capacity——A Cointegration Test Based on the Macroeconomic Data of China during 1987～2013

本文采用中国1987~2013年的宏观经济数据,对经济改革与技术创新能力之间的关系进行了深入的研究。研究结果表明,经济改革与技术创新能力之间存在单向因果关系,经济改革是技术创新能力变化的原因;长期均衡状态下,技术创新能力提升的近30%可由经济改革解释;短期中,经济改革的短期波动对技术创新能力短期波动的影响在所有的短期波动中占主导地位。

Using the macroeconomic data of China during 1987-2013,this paper analyzes the influence of economic reform on technological innovation capacity through an empirical approach. The results show that there is a one-way causation between economic reform and technological innovation capacity： the variation of economic reform is the causation of the variation of technological innovation capacity; in the long-run equilibrium relationship,nearly 30% of the improvement of technological innovation capacity can be explained by economic reform; and in the short-term,the influence of the short-term fluctuation of economic reform on technological innovation capacity plays a leading role among all short-term fluctuations.