城镇化对扩大内需的实证研究

Empirical Analysis On the Relationship between Expanding Domestic Demand and Urbanization

城镇化促进区域经济增长,主要是通过扩大内需来实现的。本文选取2000~2012年的数据,利用面板协整分析、面板格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型等方法,从中国省级层面对城镇化与内需的相互作用关系进行了动态计量分析。研究发现：长期来看,城镇化与内需之间存在双向因果关系;从短期来看,城镇化是扩大内需的格兰杰原因,但扩大内需不是城镇化的格兰杰原因。

Urbanization promotes regional economic growth,mainly through the expansion of domestic demand. The paper applied the panel cointegration,error correction models and granger causal relation test to investigate co-movement and the causal relationships between urbanization and domestic demand for China＇s 30 provinces during 2000-2012. The results show that there is bidirectional causality between urbanization and domestic demand in long run. In short run,urbanization is the Granger cause of expanding domestic demand,but the expansion of domestic demand is not Granger cause of urbanization.