恐怖活动风险与中国对发展中国家的直接投资

Terrorism Risk and China's OFDI to the Developing Countries

恐怖活动是影响东道国吸引外资的重要风险之一。中国的对外直接投资很快就会超过外资流入，成为对外投资大国。发展中国家是中国企业的重要投资国，而一些国家也面临相当严峻的恐怖活动风险。文章使用中国2004～2013十年问对33个恐怖活动频发的发展中国家的OFDI面板数据发现：长期来看，东道国恐怖活动发生频率每上升1％，将导致中国对其直接投资存量下降1．496％。文章还发现，提升中国与东道国的国际贸易额，可以有效增加其反恐投入，进而缓解恐怖活动风险对中国对外直接投资造成的负面影响。

China＇s outward foreign direct investment will soon exceed its inward foreign direct investment, and the developing countries definitely should become its main destinations. However, most developing countries are trapped into the rising risk of terrorist attacks, which jeopardizes their ability to attract foreign direct investment. By using the panel data of China＇s OFDI towards 33 developing countries from 2004 to 2013, it finds that in the long run, the frequency of terrorist attacks rises 1% in the host countries, which will lead to the falling of China＇s direct investment towards them up to 1.496%. It also finds that the growth of the host countries＇ international trade can effectively increase their counterterrorism investment, thereby alleviating the negative impact of terrorism risks on China＇s outward foreign direct investment towards the developing countries.