2000年以来我国人口和城镇化空间分布变化

Changes of Population and Urbanization Spatial Distribution in China Since 2000

采用2000年第五次和2010年第六次全国人口普查分县数据,以全国区县为基本分析单元,从人口密度、人口流动性和城镇化等角度分析了2000年以来我国人口和城镇化的空间分布变化.研究认为我国人口空间分布具有格局相对稳定和分布极不均衡等特征,人口净迁入呈现"中部低、四周高"的鲜明特色,人口迁移已成为影响区域人口增长的主要动力.我国已经进入快速城市化轨道,但受新农村建设的快速发展、区域间工资差异的缩小和经济增速放缓等因素的影响,未来中国城镇化增速将会减缓,这种趋势在外来劳动力依赖性较强的沿海地区已有所体现.在全国3大城市群中,珠三角仍具有最强的人口集聚能力,而人口密度、人口流动性和城镇化等空间集聚结构上珠三角呈典型的核心-边缘模式,长三角和京津唐地区则呈典型的多核心模式.

Implementation of rational distribution of population and urbanization which is not only related to distribution process of opportunity and equality during population migration, but also related to the problems of formulation of national regional development strategy and distribution ways of social resources etc. is a major strategic issue in China. Using the fifth and sixth national population in 2000 and 2010 respective census data in China and using the districts or counties as basic analysis unit, evolutional trends of population and urbanization spatial distribution in China since 2000 are analyzed from the point of view of population density, population movement and urbanization rate etc.. It＇s suggested that population spatial distribution in China has showed the characteristics of relative stability pattern and extremely uneven spatial distribution etc. and population net immigrant rate shows the distinctive characteristics of ＂middle low and around high＂ and population movements has become the main motive force of regional population growth. China has entered the fast track of urbanization, but under the impact of rapid development of new rural construction, more and more narrow of regional salary gap, and slowdown of regional economic development etc.. Chinese urbanization growth speed will become slow in the future and this trend has been embodied in coastal areas which has been strongly depends on migrant labor. Among the 3 largest urban groups, the Pearl River Delta has still the strongest ability of population assembling and on spatial agglomeration structure of population density, population movement and urbanization. The Pearl River Delta has typical core periphery structure, and Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region have typical multi-core distribution structure.