国际货币体系改革有无终极最优解?——从N-1问题看超主权储备货币的发展前景

The N-1 Hypothesis and Prospects of Super-Sovereign Reserve Currency:A Final Optimal Solution to IMS Reform?

本次国际金融危机引发了人们对于现行不公平的国际货币体系的反思,发展超主权储备货币成为长远看取代美元本位的一个选项。然而,鉴于对外负债一直是国际清偿能力创造的主要来源,N-1假设决定了必然至少有一个经济体贸易或者经常项目收支为负,才可能解决这个问题。金本位和最优共同货币区——欧元区的实践表明,无论是基于实物本位还是信用本位的超主权货币选择,都不能很好地解决国际收支的有序调节问题。由此,超主权货币可能并非国际货币体系改革的唯一终极最优解。

The unsettled international financial crisis ignites the rethinking about the current unfair international monetary system.The expanding usage of super-sovereign currency is proposed as an alternative to dollar standard in the international monetary system in the long run.As the increase of external liabilities has been the major resource of international liquidity creation so far,at least one economic entity should be in net capital inflow or current account deficit,according to the N-1 hypothesis.The evolution under both gold standard and optimal common currency area(i.e.,the euro zone) reveals that there is no perfect and orderly BOP adjustment mechanism either under a physical standard or a credit standard super-sovereign currency system.Therefore,super-sovereign currency might only be one option among multiple choices rather than the ultimate optimal solution to IMS reform.