近期国内粮食生产形势分析及展望

Recent Domestic Grain Production and Its Prospect

2014年中国粮食播种面积继续增加,总产量实现"十一连增",单产水平不断提高。2015年粮食生产形势总体向好,冬小麦长势较好,稻谷长势正常。2015年国内粮食价格整体稳中略升,但与国际市场相比价格竞争力继续下降。在国内外价差扩大的驱动下,中国玉米产品进口量同比增加,小麦和稻谷产品进口量同比下降。综合国内经济发展、最低收购价政策等因素,未来中国粮食供求仍处于紧平衡,价格上涨空间不大。

In 2014, the sown area of grain continued increasing, and the total grain output had increased for the eleventh consecutive year, with yield per hectare enhancing unceasingly. In 2015, the situation of grain production was fairly good, the winter wheat grew well and rice was in a normal growing condition. The domestic grain price rose steadily, but it was less competitive compared with that in the international market. Driven by the gap between domestic and international prices, the import volume of maize increased year on year in China, and imported wheat and rice decreased year on year. Considering the stage of domestic economic development, the minimum purchasing price policies and so on, tight balance between supply and demand of China＇s grain will go on in the future, and there is little room for price to rise.