中国对俄罗斯水果出口增长的三元边际分析

Ternary-margin Analysis on the Growth of China's Fruit Export to Russia

运用三元边际分析法,将中国对俄罗斯水果出口增长分解为扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际,分析了2005—2014年中国对俄罗斯水果出口的动态增长特点。得出结论 :2005以来中国对俄罗斯水果出口增长主要由出口数量增加拉动,数量边际贡献度高达99.7%。分时期来看,出口品种较为稳定,价格边际的影响由抑制作用向推动作用转变,出口数量的增减对整体出口贸易影响明显,从近3年情况来看,数量边际增长率高,中国对俄罗斯水果出口呈现较好的发展趋势。

Applying to the ternary-margin analysis, this paper divided the growth of China＇s fruit export to Russia into extension margin, price margin and amount margin, and analyzed its dynamic growth characteristics from 2005 to 2014. Since 2005, the growth of China＇s fruit export to Russia has been driven by the amount of export with the contribution margin rate in amount up to 99.7%. The varieties of export were relatively stable in different periods. The impact of price margin was promotional rather than inhibitory, and the change of export amount bore on the overall export trade obviously. The growth rate of amount margin increased rapidly and the fruit export growth to Russia appeared better development tendency in the latest three years.