中国水果市场分析与2020年展望

China's Fruit Market and Its Prospect for 2020

2015年中国大宗水果平均批发价格延续2014年10月以来的上涨态势,至4月出现小幅回落;1—3月水果及其制品持续贸易逆差。从当前走势来看,消费者对果品品质和质量安全日益关注,新型营销方式的快速介入促进了水果产销对接,水果及其制品对外贸易呈现出口缩减、进口扩大的态势;生产费用和交易成本持续上涨、果品标准化程度低、质量安全信任度低是目前水果市场存在的突出问题。展望2020年中国水果市场,生产将由数量扩张型向质效提升型逐渐转变,产量增速将放缓;人口增长和城镇化水平提高推动消费需求持续增长;价格呈温和上涨趋势;进出口均具有增长空间。

The average wholesale price of staple fruit in China continued rising after Oct. 2014, and went down slightly in Apr. 2015. In Jan-Mar 2015, the trade deficit of the fruits and fruit products continued. For the current fruit market, consumers may pay more attention to quality and safety of fruit, and quick intervention of new marketing modes will promote the abutment of fruit production and marketing. As for fruits and fruit products trade, the export reduced, while the import expanded. There are several serious problems in the current fruit market, such as continuous rising of the production costs and transaction costs,the low degree of fruit standardization and low trust of the consumers in the fruit＇s quality and safety. Look forward to China＇s fruit market until 2020, the fruit production will transfer from quantity expanding to quality and efficiency improving, and the production growth will slow down. Population growth and the elevation of urbanization level will promote the growth of consumer demand, and the fruit price will be in a modest rising trend. Both the import and export of fruits and fruit products will have the room for growth.