新型城市化的路径:智慧城市成长与创新力量的互动作用——基于深圳市时间序列的脉冲响应函数分析

Research on the Route of New Urbanization: the Interaction of Smart City and Innovational Powers——An Analysis on Time Series of Shenzhen

为探究智慧城市成长水平与各创新要素之间的互动关系,收集深圳市1997—2013年的技术创新、制度创新、知识创新和智慧城市成长的时间序列数据并建立VAR模型。对模型进行广义脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解分析。广义脉冲响应函数分析的结果显示各类创新和智慧城市成长之间存在非直线的双向互动关系,一方面各类创新对智慧城市成长具有明显驱动作用,其中技术创新起到的作用最大;另一方面智慧城市成长也影响创新的发展,其中对知识创新的影响最大。方差分解分析的结果也印证了这一结论:各类创新是智慧城市成长预测方差的主要解释力量,而智慧城市成长对各个创新的预测方差解释力度较弱。

The purpose of this paper is to study the growth mechanism of smart city. The time series data of Shenzhen from 1997--2013 are collected and VAR model is formed with the analysis of generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis for further research. The results of generalized impulse response function show that, on the one hand, innovation power, especially technology innovation, is the driving force of smart city. On the other another hand, in turn, the growth level of smart city effects innovation power. The results of variance decomposition analysis suggest that innovation mainly explain the forecasting mean square error of the growth of smart city. The result of this study serves to enrich the strategies of Chinese polis of smart city and the nation as a whole.