基于GWR的湖北省社会经济因素对生态服务价值的影响

The Impact of Socio-economic Factors on Ecological Service Value in Hubei Province: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach

研究目的:掌握湖北省社会经济因素对生态服务价值影响的空间分异情况,为湖北省不同区域的经济社会和生态环境的协调发展提供科学参考。研究方法:构建地理加权回归模型。研究结果:(1)第一产业对生态服务价值的负面影响由西至东逐渐减弱;(2)第二产业对鄂东地区生态服务价值负面影响较为显著,鄂中地区较弱,在鄂西地区则表现出正面影响;(3)第三产业主要对鄂西北及鄂中地区生态服务价值呈现正面影响,其他地区则不太明显;(4)城镇化对生态服务价值的负面影响由西至东逐渐减弱,对鄂东地区负面影响十分微弱;(5)人口因素主要对湖北省人口比较集中的沿江平原地区造成显著的负面影响。研究结论:应根据不同地区社会经济因素对生态服务功能影响的差异,采取适合当地的差别化发展方式。

The purpose of this paper is to reveal spatial variation of the impact of socio-economic factors on ecological service value, which may serve as a reference in coordinated development of economy and ecology in Hubei Province. Geographically weighted regression model was employed to analyze the dataset. The results indicated that： 1）The negative impact of primary industry on ESV diminished from west to east.2）The impact of secondary industry on ESV is obviously negative in the Western Hubei, weak in the Central Hubei, but positive in the Eastern Hubei. 3）The significantly positive impact of tertiary industry is mainly in northwestern and the central Hubei. 4）The negative impact of urbanization level on ESV diminished from west to east, but weak in eastern Hubei. 5）The negative impact of population on ESV mainly focus on the Jianghan Plain in the central Hubei and the Plain along the Yangtze River in east of Hubei, which are the most populated areas. The conclusion is that physiographic condition and level of social economic development are varied from different areas in Hubei, which decide the spatial variation of the above phenomenon. Finally, some proposals on sustainable developmentare given to different areas of Hubei Province according to the main impact factorsof each region.