住宅投资是地方经济的新增长点吗?——基于辽宁的实证检验

Is Housing Investment a New Point of Growth? An Empirical Study of Liaoning Province

中国经济进入新常态,2014年东北三省经济增速大幅回落,引起社会各界的广泛关注。本文运用2005—2014年辽宁季度数据,对住宅投资与经济增长之间的Granger领先—滞后关系进行检验。结果表明,"住宅投资引领经济增长"的假说不成立;而且,自2011年第2季度,住宅投资与经济增长之间成反向关系,这和二战后初期流行的"经济增长理论认为住宅投资会放缓经济增长"的观点是一致的。然后通过进一步分析判断辽宁住宅投资已经过度增长。因此,长期以来,辽宁把住宅投资当作地方经济的新增长点和支柱产业的政策值得反思。

Under the new normal, the three provinces of northeast China growth dropped sharply in 2014 were widely＇ focused on. The paper examines Granger lead-lag relationship between housing investment and economic growth using the quarterly data of Liaoning province from 2005-2014. The results show that the housing-led growth hypothesis is not formed. Moreover, since the second quarter of 2011, housing investment has a reverse relationship with economic growth, and this is consistent on the popular view economic growth theory thinks that housing would slow economic growth after world war Ⅱ. Further analysis judgment housing investment has been invested excessively in Liaoning province. Therefore, for a long time, the policy that housing investment has been regarded as a new growth point of local economy and the pillar industry should be re -evaluated.