中国货币政策应该盯住资产价格吗?

Should China's Monetary Policies Peg to Asset Price?:An Empirical Study Based on LT-TVP-VAR Model

货币政策能否对资产价格形成有效调控,是讨论是否应该将资产价格纳入货币政策调控目标框架的首要问题。本文通过建立包含潜在门限的时变参数向量自回归模型,实证分析了"价格型"和"数量型"货币政策对通货膨胀及资产价格调控效果的时变特征。结果显示,无论是"价格型"还是"数量型"货币政策,对通货膨胀和资产价格的调控效果,在宏观经济和资本市场发展的不同阶段均存在显著的阶段性差异;货币政策对通货膨胀的逆风向调控效果在很大程度上受资产价格波动的影响。因此在货币政策的制定和实施过程中,密切关注资产价格的变化不仅有助于提高货币政策宏观调控效果,而且对于兼顾宏观经济和金融市场的稳定也是极为必要的。

Whether monetary policy can regulate asset price is prime to discuss the problem if asset price should be included into the monetary policy regulation target frame. Using a time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model with latent threshold, this paper empirically studied the time- varying characteristics of the regulation effect of price-oriented and quantitative monetary policy on inflation and asset price. The results show that both price-oriented and quantitative monetary policy have different regulation effect on inflation and asset price in different stage of macro economy and capital market development, and the regulatory effect of monetary policy on inflation is affected sig- nificantly by asset price fluctuations. In the process of the formulation and implementation of mone- tary policy, paying close attention to asset price fluctuations is not only helpful to improve the regula- tion effect of monetary policy, but also necessary to promote the stability of macro economy and finan- cial market.