摘要
为保障铁路危险货物专用线安全运行,利用基于粗糙集-突变理论的风险评价方法对铁路危险货物专用线进行风险分析。在构建系统的评价指标体系基础上,利用粗糙集方法计算指标权重,再用突变评价法逐级计算,得到系统最终突变值,以突变值反映系统风险的相对高低。基于北京铁路局管内10条危险货物专用线综合分析报告内容,利用该评价方法对这10条专用线进行风险评价。实例分析表明,综合分析报告所描述的问题较多的专用线,其突变值也较低,风险相对较高,评价结果基本符合实际情况。
To ensure safe operation of railway dangerous goods sidings,a rough set and catastrophe theory based method was worked out for evaluating risks in railway dangerous goods sidings. An index system was established. Index weights were calculated by using the rough set method. The final catastrophe values were obtained by iteration. The catastrophe values can reflect risks in the system. Based on comprehensive analysis reports on ten private lines in Beijing Railway Bureau,risks in those sidings were evaluated by using the proposed method. Results show that private lines having more problems have lower catastrophe values and higher risk,which implies that the results obtained by using the proposed method conform basically with reality.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期103-107,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
专用线
风险分析
突变理论
粗糙集
危险货物
private lines
risk analysis
catastrophe theory
rough set
dangerous goods
