考虑外部信息的应急目标协商僵局消解方法研究

Algorithm considering external information for solving deadlock in emergency goal negotiation

为快速、有效地消解时限条件下应急目标协商产生的协商僵局,提出应急组织背景下带僵局消解的应急目标协商程序。为确保协商参与者的整合效用,基于保留值等效置换机制建立僵局议题消解模型,并提出外部信息直接影响和间接影响下改进的粒子群优化(PSO)算法求解模型,最后通过试验对改进的算法进行分析和验证。结果表明:外部信息启发式引导随机粒子的寻优过程,对快速消解应急目标协商僵局有明显的积极影响。建立合作稳定的应急决策组织,并向经历过类似议题协商的组织成员或权威的专家征询意见和建议,是获得协商僵局时准确的外部信息的主要途径。

In order to solve the negotiation deadlock arising in time-limited emergency goal negotiation quickly and effectively,a procedure for emergency goal negotiation with deadlock solving mechanism in emergency organization context was firstly presented. Then,to ensure that the integrated-utility of both negotiators does not reduce,a model of deadlock issue solving was built. Furthermore,two improved PSO algorithms that directly and indirectly affected by external information respectively were proposed for solving the model. Finally,some experiments were carried out to analyze and verify the improved PSO algorithms. The results show that external information,which heuristically guides the optimization process of random particles,has an obvious positive effect on quickly solving deadlock in emergency goal negotiation,and that main way for obtaining accurate external information when negotiation deadlock arises is thatestablishing a cooperative and stable emergency decision-making organization and consulting experienced organization members or authoritative experts for their suggestions and advices.