CBA联赛影响比赛胜负的关键性技术指标研究

Game-Related Statistics that Discriminated Winning and Losing Teams of CBA League

研究目的:通过对CBA联赛中22项技术指标进行了分析,找出影响比赛胜负的关键性技术指标。方法:运用独立样本t检验、判别分析和相关分析对2013-2014赛季CBA联赛的全部335场比赛中胜负球队间的22项技术指标进行了分析。研究结果:在判别方程中,二分球命中率(SC=0.540)、三分球命中率(SC=0.443)、后场篮板球(SC=0.473)、抢断(SC=0.457)和失误(SC=-0.498)五个技术指标是决定比赛胜负的关键因素。5个关键指标与比赛结果均呈中高度相关,二分球命中率(r=0.69)、三分球命中率(r=0.65)、后场篮板球(r=0.73)、抢断(r=0.61)和失误(r=-0.57),且达到非常显著性水平(p<0.01)。今后CBA各队教练员和相关技术分析人员应在战术部署和训练中对以上5个技术指标加以重视,对于今后球队成绩的提高能够提供很大的帮助。

The purpose of the research is to analyze the 22 technical indicators in the CBA League,and find out the key technical indicators that affect the outcome of the game. Method. The 22 technical indicators of winning and losing teams between the 335 games of 2013 2014 CBALeague were analyzed by independent sample t test, dis-criminate analysis and correlation analysis. Results. In the discriminate equation, two-pointer hit probability （ SC =0. 540 ） , three-point hit probability （ SC =0. 443 ） , back court rebounds （ SC =0. 473 ） , steals （ SC =0. 457 ） and faults（ SC = -0. 498 ） are the key factors in determining the outcome of the game. The five technical indicators are showed a highly correlated. Two-pointer hit probability （ r=0. 69 ） , three-point hit probability （ r=0. 65 ） , back court rebounds （ r =0. 73 ） , steals （ r =0. 61 ） and faults （r= -0. 57）,p〈0. 01. Coaches of CBA teams and relat-ed technical personnel should pay more attention on the five technical indexes,when they are training and tactical arrangement.