2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测

Study and Prediction of the Relative Sea Level Rise in 2030 in Shanghai Area

从全球气候变化区域响应角度，依据1912—2000年吴淞验潮站年平均潮位资料，构建灰色线性回归组合模型，并将其与最小二乘法和小波变换相结合，分析以吴淞为代表的上海绝对海平面长期变化趋势和周期变化规律。由此预测2030年上海绝对海平面相对2011年的上升值为4cm，结合已公布的构造沉降和城市地面沉降、流域水土保持和大型水利工程及人工挖沙导致的河口河槽冲刷、河口围海造地和深水航道及跨江跨海大桥导致水仇抬升等叠加效应及其变化趋势，预测2030年上海市相对海平面上升10～16cm，陆地海平面上升有7个风险分阮。

In a view of regional response to global climate change, eustatic sea level variation and long-term trends of potential cycle in the Shanghai area are analyzed by using the grey model with linear regression analysis, which is combining the least square method and wavelet transform based on the yearly-averaged tidal data at the Wusong tide station in 1912-2000. The eustatic sea level rise in Shanghai area in 2030 is predicted as 4 cm compare with in 2011. Meanwhile, the relative sea level rise is predicted as 10-16 cm, which combined with eustatic sea level rise and published tectonic subsidence, urban ground subsidence, estuarine channel erosion resulted from the watershed soil and water conservation and large water conservancy engineering, and rising of water level due to the land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. Seven risks zoning of the sea level rise in land area of Shanghai is also estimated.